Greens boast 2nd place poll standings

Poll results released today show the Guelph byelection is now a two-way race between Mike Nagy of the Green Party and Frank Valeriote of the Liberals.

The poll, conducted Sept. 1 and 2 by Oraclepoll Research, shows Green Party support is now almost twice as high as the Conservatives’ and three times the level of the NDP .

The standings are: Frank Valeriote, Liberals 38.4%; Mike Nagy Green Party 24.2%; Gloria Kovach, Conservatives 12.6%; Tom King, NDP 8.0%.

A further 16.7% of voters are undecided.

"We now have the momentum to win this election. People are responding to our message of hope", said Guelph's Green Party campaign manager Stan Kozak.

Kozak said the poll reflects the feedback local canvassers have been getting at the door - that the Conservatives are failing badly and stand no chance of being elected in Guelph.

The poll also shows that 82% of Guelph voters support Green Party Leader Elizabeth May's inclusion in the national leaders' debate.

The Oraclepoll survey was conducted on Sept, 1 and 2 with 300 electors who say they are certain to vote. The polls margin of error is +/-5.7%, 19 times out of 20.

Source: Guelph Green Party

Comments

[Paul Atarsus]

Has the Mercury been hookwinked again by a poll?

Taking a quick look at the pollster's website would give a good clue... in their "Recent Polls and News Releases" section, they have all of 4 polls listed... two from 2004, one from 2005, and their last one was from February 2006. Interestingly enough, all of them have to do with environmental causes... coincidence that the Greens did so well in their poll?

Hoodwinked again, I think.

http://www.oraclepoll.com/recent%20polls%20and%20news%20releases.htm

[Roger]

FYI ...
The source of this post, as noted, is the Green party.
Also take note of the sample size of just 300.

[PT]

Green Party polls released before the last round of byelections were wildly off the actual results and can be taken with a grain of salt. Let's see credible poll numbers from a legitimate market research firm.

[GetInvolved]

So, this rated a posting why?

[Chuck]

Does it occur to you that the reason we have not seen any other polls ("reputable" or otherwise) is because they all say the same thing and the only party who would release this info is the Greens. Frank Valeriote's full page advertisement on the back of yesterday's Tribune would certainly suggest the Liberals know that the Greens (at least in this riding) are their biggest competition. It will be interesting to see where the 16% undecided place their X and whether Kovach a distant 3rd will bring enough comfort to those voting Liberal out of fear of a Conservative win will shift their support to either the NDP or the Greens. Only time will tell. How much is entirely unknown!

[D C]

it appears that OraclePoll is a small, possibly one-man, research shop based out of Sudbury. there are MANY such firms operating in North America and just because they are small does not mean they cannot provide quality work. a simple google search identifies a great many local or issue-specific polls it has actually conducted recently but which have not been listed on its rather out-of-date website (not altogether uncommon for one-man shops)

i do not doubt that the firm used basic polling methodology and the results of this poll are within the tolerances of any poll that would have been conducted by any other firm. the sample of n=300 is standard for small polls and simply widens the margin of error (+/-6% vs +/-3% for a poll with a more expensive sample of n=1000). it's an inexpensive poll conducted by a small firm. methodologically, there is nothing wrong with that, its just not as precise.

but rather than question the messenger, I think we should look at the results. as glaring as they are in the measured support for the Liberals and Greens and lack thereof for the Conservatives and NDP, are they really that unreasonable? I dont think so. I think the Conservatives have blown it here for all sorts of reasons both locally and federally. The Greens have huge momentum and garner new supporters everyday. the NDP is sadly seen as a party of the past despite a solid candidate, and the Liberals continue to command strong support here in Guelph because of inertia and weariness of alternatives. Liberals in Guelph dont tend to win elections, they tend to not lose them.

the large undecided proportion is what will make this (eventual) election interesting.

[J]

Trying to be polite as possible, but the Mercury is run by a bunch of fools if they think this poll has the slightest bit of legitimacy. Fool them twice, shame on them.

[Geoff]

As Greg from Democratic Space notes in his blog, the Greens hired the same company to do a similar poll in the provincial election. The poll showed the Greens placing second, at 28%, well ahead of the Liberals and NDP. The result? A week later, the Greens got 33% of the vote, and the Libs and NDP got even less than the poll predicted. So don't discount this poll just yet, even with the small sample size.

[Kevin Ames]

DC,
"the Liberals continue to command strong support here in Guelph because of inertia and weariness of alternatives. Liberals in Guelph dont tend to win elections, they tend to not lose them. "

Why is it when people like you don't like the result of election they blame the electorate? Just because you like the Greens or the NDP or whoever it is that you support doesn't mean that the rest of us haven't considered your choice and rejected it as being wrong for Guelph and Canada.

[D C]

kevin, im not "blaming" anyone for the results - i understand how an election works. im simply saying that for all sorts of reasons, this riding tends to vote Liberal by default. can you argue with that? there is a sufficicient Liberal base here that even if the party were to run a weak candidate, they would still do well. look at how ineffective Chamberlain was - she has become a case study in local political science courses - and yet she was continually re-elected.

unless the Liberal candidate pulls some moron move, they will likely be elected - that was my point. many people here are weary of the Greens, bored with the NDP and scared of the Conservatives. The Liberal is, and for decades has been, the easiest and least problematic choice.

and what's with your "people like you" comment?

[Kevin Ames]

DC,

Sorry if I misunderstood your comment.

I don't know what they are saying in the political science classes but Brenda Chamberlain's skill as a politician should not be underestimated. She knew her constituents and was an incredible campaigner. Anyone who underestimated her lost an election to her.